Carolina Hurricanes at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Martin NecasGoals1
- Martin NecasAssists1
- Martin NecasPoints2
Sabres- Jeff SkinnerGoals1
- Peyton KrebsAssists1
- Jeff SkinnerPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Casey Mittelstadt Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P315:55Owen Power Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (8), Zach Benson (12)2–2
- P314:42Martin Necas Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (24), Teuvo Teravainen (20)2–1
- P26:27Jeff Skinner Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (24), Kyle Okposo (9)1–1
- P12:40Tony DeAngelo Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (22), Martin Necas (24)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:40Tony DeAngelo Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (22), Martin Necas (24)CAR 1 – 0 BUF · CAR 42% → 56% +15CAR 42% → 56%+15 pts
- P26:27Jeff Skinner Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (24), Kyle Okposo (9)CAR 1 – 1 BUF · BUF 37% → 57% +19BUF 37% → 57%+19 pts
- P314:42Martin Necas Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (24), Teuvo Teravainen (20)CAR 2 – 1 BUF · CAR 47% → 88% +40CAR 47% → 88%+40 pts
- P315:55Owen Power Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (8), Zach Benson (12)CAR 2 – 2 BUF · BUF 9% → 52% +43BUF 9% → 52%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 56%
- Fair odds
- BUF -142
- CAR +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.8 – 3.3 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +13 | CAR: Spencer Martin: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +44 Elo | BUF 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 58.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 31 |
| 8th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −0.123rd of 31 |
| 1st of 3156.2% | Shot share | 52.0%10th of 31 |
| 28th of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 90.0%19th of 31 |
| 4th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 31 |
| 12th of 3114–12 | Road vs home | 11–1725th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CAR 2–0 BUF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.