Buffalo Sabres at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Zemgus GirgensonsGoals1
- Kale ClagueAssists1
- Zemgus GirgensonsPoints1
Blue Jackets- Dmitri VoronkovGoals1
- Ivan ProvorovAssists1
- Dmitri VoronkovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P33:05Connor Clifton Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jacob Bryson (3), Zach Benson (11)2–1
- P116:16Zemgus Girgensons Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Okposo (8), Kale Clague (1)1–1
- P112:05Dmitri Voronkov Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Marchenko (13), Ivan Provorov (21)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:05Dmitri Voronkov Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Marchenko (13), Ivan Provorov (21)BUF 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 53% → 69% +16CBJ 53% → 69%+16 pts
- P116:16Zemgus Girgensons Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Okposo (8), Kale Clague (1)BUF 1 – 1 CBJ · BUF 31% → 47% +16BUF 31% → 47%+16 pts
- P33:05Connor Clifton Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jacob Bryson (3), Zach Benson (11)BUF 2 – 1 CBJ · BUF 48% → 74% +26BUF 48% → 74%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 47%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -115
- BUF +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.0 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | −12 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.31 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +21 Elo | BUF 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 53.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.830th of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.2 | Margin | −0.727th of 31 |
| 10th of 3151.9% | Shot share | 47.3%24th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 89.5%27th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 15th of 3113–13 | Road vs home | 9–1730th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 1–1 CBJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.