Carolina Hurricanes at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jordan StaalGoals1
- Jordan StaalAssists1
- Jordan StaalPoints2
Wild- Jonas BrodinGoals1
- Ryan HartmanAssists2
- Ryan HartmanPoints2
Scoring summary
- P311:02Stefan Noesen Goal (13) Deflected, assists: Jack Drury (18), Teuvo Teravainen (21)3–2
- P219:35Andrei Svechnikov Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (29), Jordan Staal (15)2–2
- P119:39Jonas Brodin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Duhaime (3), Ryan Hartman (17)1–2
- P115:26Jordan Staal Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Jordan Martinook (12), Jaccob Slavin (19)1–1
- P110:10Connor Dewar Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Declan Chisholm (4), Ryan Hartman (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:10Connor Dewar Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Declan Chisholm (4), Ryan Hartman (16)CAR 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 53% → 69% +15MIN 53% → 69%+15 pts
- P115:26Jordan Staal Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Jordan Martinook (12), Jaccob Slavin (19)CAR 1 – 1 MIN · CAR 31% → 47% +16CAR 31% → 47%+16 pts
- P119:39Jonas Brodin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Duhaime (3), Ryan Hartman (17)CAR 1 – 2 MIN · MIN 53% → 70% +17MIN 53% → 70%+17 pts
- P219:35Andrei Svechnikov Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (29), Jordan Staal (15)CAR 2 – 2 MIN · CAR 25% → 48% +23CAR 25% → 48%+23 pts
- P311:02Stefan Noesen Goal (13) Deflected, assists: Jack Drury (18), Teuvo Teravainen (21)CAR 3 – 2 MIN · CAR 49% → 82% +33CAR 49% → 82%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 49%
- Fair odds
- MIN -117
- CAR +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 3.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +20 | +3 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.51 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +7 Elo | CAR 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 1st of 3156.1% | Shot share | 49.4%19th of 31 |
| 28th of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 89.6%27th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 14th of 3114–13 | Road vs home | 14–1315th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CAR 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.