Minnesota Wild at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals2
- Mats ZuccarelloAssists4
- Mats ZuccarelloPoints4
Kraken- Jordan EberleGoals1
- Jared McCannAssists1
- Jordan EberlePoints1
Scoring summary
- P36:11Jordan Eberle Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Adam Larsson (14)5–2
- P26:58Dakota Mermis Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (39), Connor Dewar (4)5–1
- P22:14Kirill Kaprizov Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (26), Brock Faber (30)4–1
- P21:09Matt Boldy Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (37), Mats Zuccarello (38)3–1
- P113:32Kirill Kaprizov Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (37), Ryan Hartman (15)2–1
- P14:59Marcus Johansson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (36), Jake Middleton (13)1–1
- P10:36Vince Dunn Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (21), Matty Beniers (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:36Vince Dunn Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (21), Matty Beniers (16)MIN 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 59% → 73% +13SEA 59% → 73%+13 pts
- P14:59Marcus Johansson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (36), Jake Middleton (13)MIN 1 – 1 SEA · MIN 27% → 41% +14MIN 27% → 41%+14 pts
- P113:32Kirill Kaprizov Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (37), Ryan Hartman (15)MIN 2 – 1 SEA · MIN 42% → 58% +16MIN 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P21:09Matt Boldy Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (37), Mats Zuccarello (38)MIN 3 – 1 SEA · MIN 60% → 76% +16MIN 60% → 76%+16 pts
- P22:14Kirill Kaprizov Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (26), Brock Faber (30)MIN 4 – 1 SEA · MIN 77% → 88% +12MIN 77% → 88%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 60%
- Fair odds
- SEA -146
- MIN +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.8 – 3.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +7 | MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +67 Elo | SEA 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 59.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −0.117th of 31 |
| 19th of 3149.4% | Shot share | 49.3%20th of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 91.2%7th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 31 |
| 16th of 3112–14 | Road vs home | 11–1423rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–0 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.