Carolina Hurricanes at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Brady SkjeiGoals1
- Brett PesceAssists2
- Brady SkjeiPoints2
Blue Jackets- Alexander NylanderGoals1
- Alexander NylanderAssists1
- Alexander NylanderPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:45Seth Jarvis Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (13), Brett Pesce (7)4–2
- P38:41Alexander Nylander Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (14), Boone Jenner (9)3–2
- P216:30Brady Skjei Goal (8) Poke, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (11), Brent Burns (23)3–1
- P29:56Cole Sillinger Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (30), Alexander Nylander (1)2–1
- P28:19Sebastian Aho Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (25), Brett Pesce (6)2–0
- P20:53Teuvo Teravainen Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:53Teuvo Teravainen Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCAR 1 – 0 CBJ · CAR 51% → 69% +17CAR 51% → 69%+17 pts
- P28:19Sebastian Aho Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (25), Brett Pesce (6)CAR 2 – 0 CBJ · CAR 70% → 85% +15CAR 70% → 85%+15 pts
- P29:56Cole Sillinger Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (30), Alexander Nylander (1)CAR 2 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 15% → 29% +15CBJ 15% → 29%+15 pts
- P216:30Brady Skjei Goal (8) Poke, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (11), Brent Burns (23)CAR 3 – 1 CBJ · CAR 73% → 88% +16CAR 73% → 88%+16 pts
- P38:41Alexander Nylander Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (14), Boone Jenner (9)CAR 3 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 4% → 20% +15CBJ 4% → 20%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 60%
- Fair odds
- CAR -106
- CBJ +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.2 – 3.1 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −11 | −7 | CAR: Spencer Martin: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +71 Elo | CAR 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 51.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 31 |
| 8th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.730th of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −0.727th of 31 |
| 1st of 3156.0% | Shot share | 47.4%24th of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 89.7%25th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 13th of 3115–13 | Road vs home | 10–1829th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CAR 1–0 CBJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.