New York Rangers at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adam EdstromGoals1
- Adam FoxAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints1
Blue Jackets- Dmitri VoronkovGoals1
- Johnny GaudreauAssists2
- Kirill MarchenkoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P218:35Ivan Provorov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (13), Johnny Gaudreau (34)2–4
- P211:57Jack Roslovic Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (33)2–3
- P211:11Adam Edstrom Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Rempe (1)2–2
- P20:18Kirill Marchenko Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (14), Yegor Chinakhov (13)1–2
- P114:22Artemi Panarin Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (38)1–1
- P14:34Dmitri Voronkov Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (14), Damon Severson (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:22Artemi Panarin Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (38)NYR 1 – 1 CBJ · NYR 29% → 45% +16NYR 29% → 45%+16 pts
- P20:18Kirill Marchenko Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (14), Yegor Chinakhov (13)NYR 1 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 55% → 72% +17CBJ 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P211:11Adam Edstrom Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Rempe (1)NYR 2 – 2 CBJ · NYR 26% → 46% +19NYR 26% → 46%+19 pts
- P211:57Jack Roslovic Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (33)NYR 2 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 54% → 74% +20CBJ 54% → 74%+20 pts
- P218:35Ivan Provorov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (13), Johnny Gaudreau (34)NYR 2 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 76% → 91% +15CBJ 76% → 91%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 44%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -129
- NYR +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.9 – 3.3 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NYR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +12 | +3 | NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.31 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +40 Elo | NYR 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.730th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.727th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.2% | Shot share | 47.2%25th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 89.6%27th of 31 |
| 1st of 3110–0 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3118–12 | Road vs home | 9–1830th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYR 1–1 CBJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.