Columbus Blue Jackets at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Cole SillingerGoals1
- Damon SeversonAssists1
- Cole SillingerPoints1
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals2
- Artemi PanarinAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:48Artemi Panarin Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (18), K'Andre Miller (16)1–4
- P319:07Chris Kreider Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (47), Jimmy Vesey (7)1–3
- P33:24Cole Sillinger Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Damon Severson (13)1–2
- P214:19Adam Fox Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (26)0–2
- P27:17Artemi Panarin Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (36)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:17Artemi Panarin Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (36)CBJ 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 55% → 74% +18NYR 55% → 74%+18 pts
- P214:19Adam Fox Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (26)CBJ 0 – 2 NYR · NYR 75% → 89% +14NYR 75% → 89%+14 pts
- P33:24Cole Sillinger Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Damon Severson (13)CBJ 1 – 2 NYR · CBJ 7% → 21% +15CBJ 7% → 21%+15 pts
- P319:07Chris Kreider Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (47), Jimmy Vesey (7)CBJ 1 – 3 NYR · NYR >99% → >99% +0NYR >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P319:48Artemi Panarin Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (18), K'Andre Miller (16)CBJ 1 – 4 NYR · NYR 100% → 100% +0NYR 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 66%
- Fair odds
- NYR -135
- CBJ +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.3 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +1 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +119 Elo | NYR 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 31 |
| 30th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 2.86th of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.7 | Margin | +0.65th of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.3% | Shot share | 50.1%16th of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 91.2%7th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 31 |
| 29th of 319–19 | Road vs home | 19–72nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CBJ 2–1 NYR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.