Vancouver Canucks at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Conor GarlandGoals1
- Quinn HughesAssists1
- Conor GarlandPoints1
Ducks- Alex KillornGoals1
- Max JonesAssists1
- Alex KillornPoints1
Scoring summary
- P23:34Conor Garland Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Nikita Zadorov (11), J.T. Miller (53)2–1
- P14:15Alex Killorn Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Jones (8), Urho Vaakanainen (10)1–1
- P11:37Nils Hoglander Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (59), Filip Hronek (40)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:37Nils Hoglander Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (59), Filip Hronek (40)VAN 1 – 0 ANA · VAN 47% → 62% +15VAN 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P14:15Alex Killorn Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Jones (8), Urho Vaakanainen (10)VAN 1 – 1 ANA · ANA 38% → 53% +15ANA 38% → 53%+15 pts
- P23:34Conor Garland Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Nikita Zadorov (11), J.T. Miller (53)VAN 2 – 1 ANA · VAN 48% → 66% +18VAN 48% → 66%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 44%
- Fair odds
- ANA -112
- VAN +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.2 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −27 | −16 | VAN: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.67 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.41 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +38 Elo | VAN 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 52.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.6 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 31 |
| 8th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+0.8 | Margin | −0.929th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.7% | Shot share | 45.4%29th of 31 |
| 10th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 89.8%25th of 31 |
| 18th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 11th of 3118–15 | Road vs home | 8–2031st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VAN 1–0 ANA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.