New Jersey Devils at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Jack HughesGoals1
- Luke HughesAssists2
- Jack HughesPoints2
Ducks- Frank VatranoGoals2
- Max JonesAssists1
- Frank VatranoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:03Tyler Toffoli Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (24), Luke Hughes (23)3–4
- P217:08Frank Vatrano Goal (29) Backhand, assists: Troy Terry (29), Radko Gudas (9)2–4
- P215:27Jack Hughes Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (22), Jesper Bratt (40)2–3
- P213:47Max Jones Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Gustav Lindstrom (4), Jackson LaCombe (11)1–3
- P118:15Adam Henrique Goal (18) Wrap-around, assists: Max Jones (7)1–2
- P117:24Timo Meier Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Jack Hughes (37), Tyler Toffoli (18)1–1
- P13:37Frank Vatrano Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (23)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:24Timo Meier Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Jack Hughes (37), Tyler Toffoli (18)NJ 1 – 1 ANA · NJ 34% → 51% +17NJ 34% → 51%+17 pts
- P118:15Adam Henrique Goal (18) Wrap-around, assists: Max Jones (7)NJ 1 – 2 ANA · ANA 49% → 66% +17ANA 49% → 66%+17 pts
- P213:47Max Jones Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Gustav Lindstrom (4), Jackson LaCombe (11)NJ 1 – 3 ANA · ANA 70% → 86% +16ANA 70% → 86%+16 pts
- P215:27Jack Hughes Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (22), Jesper Bratt (40)NJ 2 – 3 ANA · NJ 13% → 29% +16NJ 13% → 29%+16 pts
- P217:08Frank Vatrano Goal (29) Backhand, assists: Troy Terry (29), Radko Gudas (9)NJ 2 – 4 ANA · ANA 72% → 88% +16ANA 72% → 88%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 60%
- Fair odds
- NJ -106
- ANA +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.1 – 3.1 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | ANA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −20 | NJ: Nico Daws: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.50 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +67 Elo | NJ 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 51.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −0.929th of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.6% | Shot share | 45.8%29th of 31 |
| 30th of 3189.2% | Save percentage | 89.6%26th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 4th of 3116–12 | Road vs home | 7–2031st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NJ 0–1 ANA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.