New Jersey Devils at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Nico HischierGoals1
- Nico HischierAssists3
- Nico HischierPoints4
Sharks- Nico SturmGoals1
- Ryan CarpenterAssists1
- Justin BaileyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P312:33Justin Bailey Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Carpenter (7), Henry Thrun (3)7–2
- P37:57Nico Hischier Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (39), Jonas Siegenthaler (8)7–1
- P36:57Dawson Mercer Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (36), John Marino (16)6–1
- P35:01Brendan Smith Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (15), Chris Tierney (5)5–1
- P32:41Colin Miller Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (23), Timo Meier (15)4–1
- P213:08Kevin Bahl Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (22), Jack Hughes (35)3–1
- P24:06Jack Hughes Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P23:29Jesper Bratt Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (14), Nico Hischier (21)1–1
- P118:17Nico Sturm Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Alexander Barabanov (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:17Nico Sturm Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Alexander Barabanov (7)NJ 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 53% → 70% +17SJ 53% → 70%+17 pts
- P23:29Jesper Bratt Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (14), Nico Hischier (21)NJ 1 – 1 SJ · NJ 30% → 47% +18NJ 30% → 47%+18 pts
- P24:06Jack Hughes Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNJ 2 – 1 SJ · NJ 47% → 66% +18NJ 47% → 66%+18 pts
- P213:08Kevin Bahl Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (22), Jack Hughes (35)NJ 3 – 1 SJ · NJ 69% → 85% +16NJ 69% → 85%+16 pts
- P32:41Colin Miller Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (23), Timo Meier (15)NJ 4 – 1 SJ · NJ 91% → 98% +7NJ 91% → 98%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 47%
- Fair odds
- SJ -115
- NJ +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.0 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1423 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +12 | NJ: Nico Daws: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.31 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +19 Elo | NJ 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.130th of 31 |
| 25th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.931st of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.2 | Margin | −1.731st of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.5% | Shot share | 41.8%31st of 31 |
| 30th of 3189.1% | Save percentage | 89.9%23rd of 31 |
| 18th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 6th of 3115–12 | Road vs home | 9–1730th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NJ 0–1 SJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.