Tampa Bay Lightning at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists3
- Nikita KucherovPoints4
Devils- Luke HughesAssists1
- Jack HughesPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:25Nikita Kucherov Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (36)4–1
- P39:38Brandon Hagel Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (32), Nikita Kucherov (64)3–1
- P26:01Tyler Toffoli Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (34), Luke Hughes (21)2–1
- P24:15Brayden Point Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (63), Victor Hedman (49)2–0
- P21:27Victor Hedman Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (62), Brandon Hagel (35)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:27Victor Hedman Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (62), Brandon Hagel (35)TB 1 – 0 NJ · TB 47% → 64% +18TB 47% → 64%+18 pts
- P24:15Brayden Point Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (63), Victor Hedman (49)TB 2 – 0 NJ · TB 65% → 81% +15TB 65% → 81%+15 pts
- P26:01Tyler Toffoli Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (34), Luke Hughes (21)TB 2 – 1 NJ · NJ 19% → 34% +16NJ 19% → 34%+16 pts
- P39:38Brandon Hagel Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (32), Nikita Kucherov (64)TB 3 – 1 NJ · TB 80% → 96% +16TB 80% → 96%+16 pts
- P318:25Nikita Kucherov Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (36)TB 4 – 1 NJ · TB >99% → >99% +0TB >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 51%
- Fair odds
- NJ -119
- TB +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.2 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | NJ and TB on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −13 | −25 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · NJ: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.62 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +8 Elo | NJ 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 31 |
| 15th of 310.0 | Margin | −0.123rd of 31 |
| 18th of 3149.5% | Shot share | 51.6%11th of 31 |
| 29th of 3189.3% | Save percentage | 89.1%30th of 31 |
| 11th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 31 |
| 20th of 3113–16 | Road vs home | 13–1521st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 2–0 NJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.