Montreal Canadiens at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals2
- Cole CaufieldAssists1
- Nick SuzukiPoints2
Devils- Timo MeierGoals1
- Timo MeierAssists1
- Timo MeierPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:09Nick Suzuki Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Armia (4), Mike Matheson (35)3–4
- P316:33Jesper Bratt Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (13)2–4
- P313:33Nico Hischier Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (17), Luke Hughes (20)2–3
- P217:50Ondrej Palat Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Nemec (14)2–2
- P213:07Nick Suzuki Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (27), Johnathan Kovacevic (3)2–1
- P25:23Timo Meier Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Kevin Bahl (9), Tyler Toffoli (16)1–1
- P23:06Brendan Gallagher Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (13), Josh Anderson (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:06Brendan Gallagher Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (13), Josh Anderson (9)MTL 1 – 0 NJ · MTL 45% → 63% +18MTL 45% → 63%+18 pts
- P25:23Timo Meier Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Kevin Bahl (9), Tyler Toffoli (16)MTL 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 36% → 55% +19NJ 36% → 55%+19 pts
- P213:07Nick Suzuki Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (27), Johnathan Kovacevic (3)MTL 2 – 1 NJ · MTL 46% → 67% +21MTL 46% → 67%+21 pts
- P217:50Ondrej Palat Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Nemec (14)MTL 2 – 2 NJ · NJ 31% → 54% +23NJ 31% → 54%+23 pts
- P313:33Nico Hischier Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (17), Luke Hughes (20)MTL 2 – 3 NJ · NJ 52% → 88% +36NJ 52% → 88%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 62%
- Fair odds
- NJ -130
- MTL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.9 – 3.3 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −14 | −4 | MTL: Jake Allen: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · NJ: Nico Daws: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +85 Elo | NJ 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.8 | Margin | −0.223rd of 31 |
| 28th of 3146.0% | Shot share | 51.7%11th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 89.2%30th of 31 |
| 29th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 25th of 3111–15 | Road vs home | 12–1522nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MTL 1–1 NJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.