Nashville Predators at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Kiefer SherwoodGoals2
- Gustav NyquistAssists1
- Kiefer SherwoodPoints2
Sharks- Mikael GranlundGoals1
- Ty EmbersonAssists1
- Mikael GranlundPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:48Gustav Nyquist Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (30)4–2
- P39:34Filip Zadina Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jan Rutta (10)3–2
- P33:40Kiefer Sherwood Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (13)3–1
- P31:10Mikael Granlund Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Emberson (9)2–1
- P218:27Filip Forsberg Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (18), Gustav Nyquist (31)2–0
- P110:14Kiefer Sherwood Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Michael McCarron (8), Roman Josi (42)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:14Kiefer Sherwood Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Michael McCarron (8), Roman Josi (42)NSH 1 – 0 SJ · NSH 47% → 63% +16NSH 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P218:27Filip Forsberg Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (18), Gustav Nyquist (31)NSH 2 – 0 SJ · NSH 71% → 88% +17NSH 71% → 88%+17 pts
- P31:10Mikael Granlund Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Emberson (9)NSH 2 – 1 SJ · SJ 10% → 27% +17SJ 10% → 27%+17 pts
- P33:40Kiefer Sherwood Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (13)NSH 3 – 1 SJ · NSH 75% → 91% +17NSH 75% → 91%+17 pts
- P39:34Filip Zadina Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jan Rutta (10)NSH 3 – 2 SJ · SJ 4% → 20% +16SJ 4% → 20%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 44%
- Fair odds
- SJ -112
- NSH +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −4 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · SJ: Kaapo Kahkonen: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +42 Elo | NSH 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 52.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.230th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.931st of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −1.731st of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.0% | Shot share | 41.8%31st of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 89.9%22nd of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3116–11 | Road vs home | 9–1628th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NSH 1–0 SJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.