Nashville Predators at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals1
- Dante FabbroAssists2
- Filip ForsbergPoints2
Ducks- Brett LeasonGoals1
- Brett LeasonAssists1
- Brett LeasonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:58Gustav Nyquist Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (28)4–2
- P317:36Brett Leason Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Mason McTavish (22), Adam Henrique (22)3–2
- P38:43Michael McCarron Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Dante Fabbro (10), Kiefer Sherwood (9)3–1
- P33:26Filip Forsberg Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (19)2–1
- P211:55Isac Lundestrom Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Jones (6), Brett Leason (7)1–1
- P21:00Roman Josi Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (31), Dante Fabbro (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:00Roman Josi Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (31), Dante Fabbro (9)NSH 1 – 0 ANA · NSH 48% → 65% +18NSH 48% → 65%+18 pts
- P211:55Isac Lundestrom Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Jones (6), Brett Leason (7)NSH 1 – 1 ANA · ANA 31% → 52% +21ANA 31% → 52%+21 pts
- P33:26Filip Forsberg Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (19)NSH 2 – 1 ANA · NSH 48% → 74% +26NSH 48% → 74%+26 pts
- P38:43Michael McCarron Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Dante Fabbro (10), Kiefer Sherwood (9)NSH 3 – 1 ANA · NSH 79% → 95% +16NSH 79% → 95%+16 pts
- P317:36Brett Leason Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Mason McTavish (22), Adam Henrique (22)NSH 3 – 2 ANA · ANA <1% → 4% +4ANA <1% → 4%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 45%
- Fair odds
- ANA -113
- NSH +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.2 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | ANA and NSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −9 | −22 | NSH: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.55 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +37 Elo | NSH 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 53.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −1.029th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.2% | Shot share | 45.5%29th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 89.7%25th of 31 |
| 11th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3117–11 | Road vs home | 7–1931st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NSH 0–2 ANA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.