Anaheim Ducks at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Alex KillornGoals1
- Jackson LaCombeAssists2
- Alex KillornPoints2
Sharks- Mike HoffmanGoals1
- Mikael GranlundAssists3
- Mikael GranlundPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:36Isac Lundestrom Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none6–4
- P39:30Anthony Duclair Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (28), Mike Hoffman (11)5–4
- P218:41Adam Henrique Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Jackson LaCombe (10), Ryan Strome (24)5–3
- P217:35Frank Vatrano Goal (27) Slap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (9), Ryan Strome (23)4–3
- P215:40William Eklund Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Duclair (9), Mikael Granlund (27)3–3
- P210:26Mike Hoffman Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (10), Mikael Granlund (26)3–2
- P25:18Alex Killorn Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (24), Gustav Lindstrom (3)3–1
- P14:37Brett Leason Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (21), Radko Gudas (8)2–1
- P13:07Leo Carlsson Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Alex Killorn (15), Adam Henrique (23)1–1
- P12:47Anthony Duclair Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (9), Nikita Okhotiuk (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:26Mike Hoffman Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (10), Mikael Granlund (26)ANA 3 – 2 SJ · SJ 17% → 33% +16SJ 17% → 33%+16 pts
- P215:40William Eklund Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Duclair (9), Mikael Granlund (27)ANA 3 – 3 SJ · SJ 31% → 53% +22SJ 31% → 53%+22 pts
- P217:35Frank Vatrano Goal (27) Slap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (9), Ryan Strome (23)ANA 4 – 3 SJ · ANA 48% → 70% +23ANA 48% → 70%+23 pts
- P218:41Adam Henrique Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Jackson LaCombe (10), Ryan Strome (24)ANA 5 – 3 SJ · ANA 71% → 88% +17ANA 71% → 88%+17 pts
- P39:30Anthony Duclair Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (28), Mike Hoffman (11)ANA 5 – 4 SJ · SJ 4% → 20% +16SJ 4% → 20%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 50%
- Fair odds
- SJ -118
- ANA +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.0 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −5 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · SJ: Kaapo Kahkonen: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SJ +2 Elo | SJ 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 2.130th of 31 |
| 29th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.931st of 31 |
| 29th of 31−1.0 | Margin | −1.831st of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.7% | Shot share | 41.8%31st of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 89.8%25th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3112–16 | Road vs home | 9–1830th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ANA 2–1 SJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.