Seattle Kraken at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jared McCannGoals1
- Jared McCannAssists2
- Jared McCannPoints3
Jets- Adam LowryGoals1
- Mason AppletonAssists2
- Adam LowryPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:21Andre Burakovsky Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (5), Jared McCann (25)4–3
- P31:42Tomas Tatar Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Matty Beniers (18), Jordan Eberle (23)3–3
- P31:17Nino Niederreiter Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Mason Appleton (17), Adam Lowry (20)2–3
- P219:51Adam Lowry Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Appleton (16), Dylan Samberg (14)2–2
- P217:56Jared McCann Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (16), Jamie Oleksiak (8)2–1
- P28:07Kyle Connor Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (37), Vladislav Namestnikov (21)1–1
- P18:45Justin Schultz Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (29), Jared McCann (24)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P217:56Jared McCann Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (16), Jamie Oleksiak (8)SEA 2 – 1 WPG · SEA 44% → 67% +23SEA 44% → 67%+23 pts
- P219:51Adam Lowry Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Appleton (16), Dylan Samberg (14)SEA 2 – 2 WPG · WPG 32% → 56% +24WPG 32% → 56%+24 pts
- P31:17Nino Niederreiter Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Mason Appleton (17), Adam Lowry (20)SEA 2 – 3 WPG · WPG 56% → 79% +23WPG 56% → 79%+23 pts
- P31:42Tomas Tatar Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Matty Beniers (18), Jordan Eberle (23)SEA 3 – 3 WPG · SEA 21% → 44% +23SEA 21% → 44%+23 pts
- P317:21Andre Burakovsky Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (5), Jared McCann (25)SEA 4 – 3 WPG · SEA 48% → 95% +48SEA 48% → 95%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 65%
- Fair odds
- WPG -153
- SEA +153 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.8 – 3.4 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SEA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +1 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +107 Elo | WPG 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 60.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.022nd of 31 |
| 7th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 31 |
| 18th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.65th of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.1% | Shot share | 50.8%14th of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 92.5%1st of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 31 |
| 21st of 3113–17 | Road vs home | 19–93rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.