Pittsburgh Penguins at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins
Kraken- Oliver BjorkstrandGoals1
- Will BorgenAssists1
- Oliver BjorkstrandPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:02Alex Wennberg Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (6), Eeli Tolvanen (18)0–2
- P112:25Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (15) Batted, assists: Alex Wennberg (16), Will Borgen (20)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:25Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (15) Batted, assists: Alex Wennberg (16), Will Borgen (20)PIT 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 53% → 69% +16SEA 53% → 69%+16 pts
- P315:02Alex Wennberg Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (6), Eeli Tolvanen (18)PIT 0 – 2 SEA · SEA 90% → >99% +9SEA 90% → >99%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 49%
- Fair odds
- SEA -117
- PIT +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −17 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.42 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +4 Elo | PIT 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.119th of 31 |
| 9th of 3152.1% | Shot share | 49.2%20th of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 91.1%8th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 20th of 3112–14 | Road vs home | 12–1523rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–0 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.