Boston Bruins at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals2
- David PastrnakAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints3
Kraken- Vince DunnGoals1
- Andre BurakovskyAssists1
- Jordan EberlePoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Kailer Yamamoto Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P317:08Charlie Coyle Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (47), Brad Marchand (27)3–3
- P314:30Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Will Borgen (19), Alex Wennberg (15)2–3
- P35:29Vince Dunn Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (8), Yanni Gourde (15)2–2
- P217:08David Pastrnak Goal (38) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (24), Charlie McAvoy (32)2–1
- P24:45Jordan Eberle Goal (14) Backhand, assists: none1–1
- P15:53David Pastrnak Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Shattenkirk (10), Jesper Boqvist (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:45Jordan Eberle Goal (14) Backhand, assists: noneBOS 1 – 1 SEA · SEA 34% → 52% +19SEA 34% → 52%+19 pts
- P217:08David Pastrnak Goal (38) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (24), Charlie McAvoy (32)BOS 2 – 1 SEA · BOS 48% → 71% +23BOS 48% → 71%+23 pts
- P35:29Vince Dunn Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (8), Yanni Gourde (15)BOS 2 – 2 SEA · SEA 24% → 52% +27SEA 24% → 52%+27 pts
- P314:30Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Will Borgen (19), Alex Wennberg (15)BOS 2 – 3 SEA · SEA 51% → 89% +38SEA 51% → 89%+38 pts
- P317:08Charlie Coyle Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (47), Brad Marchand (27)BOS 3 – 3 SEA · BOS 5% → 49% +45BOS 5% → 49%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 46%
- Fair odds
- SEA -114
- BOS +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −19 | BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.48 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +29 Elo | BOS 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.120th of 31 |
| 21st of 3149.0% | Shot share | 49.3%20th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3191.7% | Save percentage | 91.1%8th of 31 |
| 28th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 31 |
| 5th of 3116–12 | Road vs home | 11–1524th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 0–1 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.