Winnipeg Jets at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Vladislav NamestnikovGoals1
- Vladislav NamestnikovAssists1
- Vladislav NamestnikovPoints2
Sabres- Eric RobinsonGoals1
- Zemgus GirgensonsAssists1
- Eric RobinsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:06Sean Monahan Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (19), Mason Appleton (15)5–2
- P318:39Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Kyle Connor (18)4–2
- P313:55Morgan Barron Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (17)3–2
- P310:38Josh Morrissey Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (36), Vladislav Namestnikov (20)2–2
- P29:20Eric Robinson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (9), Zemgus Girgensons (1)1–2
- P119:54Nino Niederreiter Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Josh Morrissey (43), Neal Pionk (18)1–1
- P117:33JJ Peterka Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Okposo (10), Jeff Skinner (20)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:33JJ Peterka Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Okposo (10), Jeff Skinner (20)WPG 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 50% → 67% +17BUF 50% → 67%+17 pts
- P119:54Nino Niederreiter Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Josh Morrissey (43), Neal Pionk (18)WPG 1 – 1 BUF · WPG 33% → 50% +17WPG 33% → 50%+17 pts
- P29:20Eric Robinson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (9), Zemgus Girgensons (1)WPG 1 – 2 BUF · BUF 50% → 70% +20BUF 50% → 70%+20 pts
- P310:38Josh Morrissey Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (36), Vladislav Namestnikov (20)WPG 2 – 2 BUF · WPG 18% → 50% +32WPG 18% → 50%+32 pts
- P313:55Morgan Barron Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (17)WPG 3 – 2 BUF · WPG 50% → 87% +37WPG 50% → 87%+37 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 47%
- Fair odds
- BUF -100
- WPG +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.1 – 3.1 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | BUF on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +10 | WPG: Laurent Brossoit: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +19 Elo | WPG 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 50.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 31 |
| 1st of 312.4 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.5 | Margin | 0.018th of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.6% | Shot share | 52.0%11th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.5% | Save percentage | 90.1%18th of 31 |
| 5th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 31 |
| 7th of 3115–12 | Road vs home | 13–1725th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WPG 1–0 BUF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.