Buffalo Sabres at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals1
- Alex TuchAssists1
- Tage ThompsonPoints1
Panthers- Brandon MontourGoals1
- Brandon MontourAssists2
- Brandon MontourPoints3
Scoring summary
- P312:44Tage Thompson Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (30), Alex Tuch (23)2–3
- P39:41Brandon Montour Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (46), Sam Reinhart (29)1–3
- P115:36Matthew Tkachuk Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (31), Brandon Montour (17)1–2
- P112:54Sam Bennett Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Cousins (5), Brandon Montour (16)1–1
- P19:25Dylan Cozens Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Greenway (11), Owen Power (17)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:25Dylan Cozens Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Greenway (11), Owen Power (17)BUF 1 – 0 FLA · BUF 44% → 60% +16BUF 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P112:54Sam Bennett Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Cousins (5), Brandon Montour (16)BUF 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 39% → 56% +16FLA 39% → 56%+16 pts
- P115:36Matthew Tkachuk Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (31), Brandon Montour (17)BUF 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 56% → 71% +16FLA 56% → 71%+16 pts
- P39:41Brandon Montour Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (46), Sam Reinhart (29)BUF 1 – 3 FLA · FLA 83% → 97% +14FLA 83% → 97%+14 pts
- P312:44Tage Thompson Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (30), Alex Tuch (23)BUF 2 – 3 FLA · BUF 2% → 13% +12BUF 2% → 13%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 62%
- Fair odds
- FLA -130
- BUF +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.9 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | +3 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +87 Elo | FLA 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 31 |
| 14th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.42nd of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.82nd of 31 |
| 10th of 3152.0% | Shot share | 55.1%2nd of 31 |
| 19th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 91.8%2nd of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 31 |
| 14th of 3114–13 | Road vs home | 17–106th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 0–1 FLA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.