Washington Capitals at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals1
- Max PaciorettyAssists1
- Tom WilsonPoints1
Panthers- Nick CousinsGoals1
- Brandon MontourAssists2
- Brandon MontourPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:41Gustav Forsling Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (15)2–3
- P316:30Aleksander Barkov Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (30), Brandon Montour (15)2–2
- P310:11Tom Wilson Goal (13) Deflected, assists: Dylan Strome (21), John Carlson (29)2–1
- P218:31Sonny Milano Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (15), Max Pacioretty (10)1–1
- P24:03Nick Cousins Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Dmitry Kulikov (15), Brandon Montour (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:03Nick Cousins Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Dmitry Kulikov (15), Brandon Montour (14)WSH 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 56% → 73% +17FLA 56% → 73%+17 pts
- P218:31Sonny Milano Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (15), Max Pacioretty (10)WSH 1 – 1 FLA · WSH 24% → 46% +22WSH 24% → 46%+22 pts
- P310:11Tom Wilson Goal (13) Deflected, assists: Dylan Strome (21), John Carlson (29)WSH 2 – 1 FLA · WSH 47% → 80% +33WSH 47% → 80%+33 pts
- P316:30Aleksander Barkov Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (30), Brandon Montour (15)WSH 2 – 2 FLA · FLA 7% → 52% +45FLA 7% → 52%+45 pts
- OT3:41Gustav Forsling Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (15)WSH 2 – 3 FLA · FLA 51% → >99% +48FLA 51% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 66%
- Fair odds
- FLA -134
- WSH +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +10 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · FLA: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +114 Elo | FLA 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 57.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.4 | Margin | +0.82nd of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.3% | Shot share | 55.1%2nd of 31 |
| 13th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 91.8%2nd of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 31 |
| 17th of 3112–14 | Road vs home | 16–108th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–2 FLA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.