Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- William KarlssonGoals1
- Paul CotterAssists2
- Paul CotterPoints2
Sabres- Dylan CozensGoals2
- Jeff SkinnerAssists2
- Jeff SkinnerPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:12Dylan Cozens Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Owen Power (19), Henri Jokiharju (11)2–7
- P312:18Casey Mittelstadt Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (18), Jeff Skinner (19)2–6
- P36:26Owen Power Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Jacob Bryson (4), Eric Robinson (7)2–5
- P32:20Kyle Okposo Goal (12) Batted, assists: Jeff Skinner (18), Casey Mittelstadt (33)2–4
- P214:46Zemgus Girgensons Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (6)2–3
- P24:28William Karlsson Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (21), Paul Cotter (15)2–2
- P21:46Brendan Brisson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (23), Paul Cotter (14)1–2
- P20:54Dylan Cozens Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P11:55Jeff Skinner Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:55Jeff Skinner Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVGK 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 55% → 69% +14BUF 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P21:46Brendan Brisson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (23), Paul Cotter (14)VGK 1 – 2 BUF · VGK 16% → 29% +13VGK 16% → 29%+13 pts
- P24:28William Karlsson Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (21), Paul Cotter (15)VGK 2 – 2 BUF · VGK 28% → 46% +18VGK 28% → 46%+18 pts
- P214:46Zemgus Girgensons Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (6)VGK 2 – 3 BUF · BUF 53% → 74% +21BUF 53% → 74%+21 pts
- P32:20Kyle Okposo Goal (12) Batted, assists: Jeff Skinner (18), Casey Mittelstadt (33)VGK 2 – 4 BUF · BUF 77% → 92% +15BUF 77% → 92%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 54%
- Fair odds
- BUF -122
- VGK +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.9 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +10 | VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +30 Elo | BUF 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 10th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −0.121st of 31 |
| 17th of 3149.7% | Shot share | 51.8%11th of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 90.1%18th of 31 |
| 27th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 16th of 3113–15 | Road vs home | 12–1725th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VGK 0–1 BUF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.