Vegas Golden Knights at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Chandler StephensonGoals1
- Chandler StephensonAssists1
- Chandler StephensonPoints2
Bruins- Morgan GeekieGoals3
- Kevin ShattenkirkAssists2
- Morgan GeekiePoints3
Scoring summary
- P315:23Mason Lohrei Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Kevin Shattenkirk (12), Charlie Coyle (29)4–5
- P35:01Chandler Stephenson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Whitecloud (6)4–4
- P217:46Michael Amadio Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (23), Brayden McNabb (17)3–4
- P216:32Morgan Geekie Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (49), Matt Grzelcyk (6)2–4
- P26:57Alex Pietrangelo Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (20), Brendan Brisson (4)2–3
- P21:48Paul Cotter Goal (7) Batted, assists: Nicolas Roy (22), Shea Theodore (23)1–3
- P116:54Morgan Geekie Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (48), Danton Heinen (11)0–3
- P115:04Jesper Boqvist Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakub Lauko (6), Kevin Shattenkirk (11)0–2
- P114:34Morgan Geekie Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Trent Frederic (19)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:34Morgan Geekie Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Trent Frederic (19)VGK 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 55% → 70% +16BOS 55% → 70%+16 pts
- P216:32Morgan Geekie Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (49), Matt Grzelcyk (6)VGK 2 – 4 BOS · BOS 75% → 89% +15BOS 75% → 89%+15 pts
- P217:46Michael Amadio Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (23), Brayden McNabb (17)VGK 3 – 4 BOS · VGK 10% → 25% +15VGK 10% → 25%+15 pts
- P35:01Chandler Stephenson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Whitecloud (6)VGK 4 – 4 BOS · VGK 21% → 47% +26VGK 21% → 47%+26 pts
- P315:23Mason Lohrei Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Kevin Shattenkirk (12), Charlie Coyle (29)VGK 4 – 5 BOS · BOS 51% → 91% +40BOS 51% → 91%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Fair odds
- BOS -124
- VGK +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −2 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +45 Elo | BOS 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 31 |
| 8th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.5 | Margin | +0.63rd of 31 |
| 17th of 3149.7% | Shot share | 49.1%21st of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 91.7%3rd of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 31 |
| 16th of 3113–14 | Road vs home | 17–1212th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VGK 1–0 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.