Vegas Golden Knights at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Chandler StephensonGoals2
- William KarlssonAssists2
- Chandler StephensonPoints2
Senators- Thomas ChabotGoals1
- Thomas ChabotAssists1
- Thomas ChabotPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Tim Stützle Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P318:45Chandler Stephenson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (20), Shea Theodore (19)3–3
- P35:48Josh Norris Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Chabot (16), Erik Brannstrom (10)2–3
- P218:47Drake Batherson Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (22), Josh Norris (14)2–2
- P29:00Thomas Chabot Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (19), Claude Giroux (34)2–1
- P23:03Chandler Stephenson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (18), Jonathan Marchessault (18)2–0
- P15:41Jonathan Marchessault Goal (30) Backhand, assists: William Karlsson (19)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:03Chandler Stephenson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (18), Jonathan Marchessault (18)VGK 2 – 0 OTT · VGK 64% → 80% +15VGK 64% → 80%+15 pts
- P29:00Thomas Chabot Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (19), Claude Giroux (34)VGK 2 – 1 OTT · OTT 18% → 34% +16OTT 18% → 34%+16 pts
- P218:47Drake Batherson Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (22), Josh Norris (14)VGK 2 – 2 OTT · OTT 29% → 53% +23OTT 29% → 53%+23 pts
- P35:48Josh Norris Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Chabot (16), Erik Brannstrom (10)VGK 2 – 3 OTT · OTT 52% → 79% +27OTT 52% → 79%+27 pts
- P318:45Chandler Stephenson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (20), Shea Theodore (19)VGK 3 – 3 OTT · VGK <1% → 49% +49VGK <1% → 49%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 55%
- Fair odds
- OTT -122
- VGK +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.3 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +14 | VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +31 Elo | OTT 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 31 |
| 8th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.526th of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −0.121st of 31 |
| 17th of 3149.7% | Shot share | 52.5%7th of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 88.6%31st of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 16th of 3112–13 | Road vs home | 14–1517th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VGK 1–0 OTT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.