Vegas Golden Knights at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Jonathan MarchessaultGoals2
- Shea TheodoreAssists3
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints3
Maple Leafs- Ryan ReavesGoals1
- Pontus HolmbergAssists1
- Ryan ReavesPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:29Nicolas Roy Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (22), Brayden McNabb (16)6–2
- P318:23Jonathan Marchessault Goal (32) Tip-In, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (25)5–2
- P314:35Ryan Reaves Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Pontus Holmberg (8)4–2
- P310:50Jonathan Marchessault Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (21)4–1
- P219:09William Karlsson Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (19)3–1
- P217:45Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (15), William Nylander (48)2–1
- P212:20Mason Morelli Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Shea Theodore (21), Sheldon Rempal (1)2–0
- P29:11Ivan Barbashev Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (12), Shea Theodore (20)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:11Ivan Barbashev Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (12), Shea Theodore (20)VGK 1 – 0 TOR · VGK 46% → 66% +20VGK 46% → 66%+20 pts
- P212:20Mason Morelli Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Shea Theodore (21), Sheldon Rempal (1)VGK 2 – 0 TOR · VGK 67% → 84% +17VGK 67% → 84%+17 pts
- P217:45Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (15), William Nylander (48)VGK 2 – 1 TOR · TOR 13% → 30% +17TOR 13% → 30%+17 pts
- P219:09William Karlsson Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (19)VGK 3 – 1 TOR · VGK 70% → 88% +17VGK 70% → 88%+17 pts
- P310:50Jonathan Marchessault Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (21)VGK 4 – 1 TOR · VGK 97% → >99% +3VGK 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 58%
- Fair odds
- TOR -125
- VGK +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −3 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +53 Elo | TOR 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 31 |
| 8th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.4 | Margin | +0.65th of 31 |
| 17th of 3149.6% | Shot share | 52.6%6th of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 90.1%18th of 31 |
| 18th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 31 |
| 19th of 3112–14 | Road vs home | 15–1214th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VGK 0–1 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.