Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Rasmus DahlinGoals1
- Rasmus DahlinAssists1
- Rasmus DahlinPoints2
Lightning- Mitchell ChaffeeGoals1
- Erik CernakAssists1
- Brayden PointPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:42Rasmus Dahlin Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (32), Jordan Greenway (12)3–2
- P311:33Tage Thompson Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (31)2–2
- P217:18Mitchell Chaffee Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Erik Cernak (8), Anthony Cirelli (20)1–2
- P110:59Alex Tuch Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P18:12Brayden Point Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (66), Victor Hedman (50)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:12Brayden Point Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (66), Victor Hedman (50)BUF 0 – 1 TB · TB 55% → 70% +15TB 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P110:59Alex Tuch Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBUF 1 – 1 TB · BUF 30% → 45% +15BUF 30% → 45%+15 pts
- P217:18Mitchell Chaffee Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Erik Cernak (8), Anthony Cirelli (20)BUF 1 – 2 TB · TB 53% → 75% +22TB 53% → 75%+22 pts
- P311:33Tage Thompson Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (31)BUF 2 – 2 TB · BUF 15% → 48% +33BUF 15% → 48%+33 pts
- OT1:42Rasmus Dahlin Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (32), Jordan Greenway (12)BUF 3 – 2 TB · BUF 49% → 94% +45BUF 49% → 94%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Fair odds
- TB -123
- BUF +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.0 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −5 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +40 Elo | TB 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.423rd of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.1 | Margin | 0.017th of 31 |
| 10th of 3151.9% | Shot share | 49.5%19th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 89.3%29th of 31 |
| 11th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 31 |
| 15th of 3114–14 | Road vs home | 17–119th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 1–1 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.