Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nick PaulGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints1
Flyers- Noah CatesGoals1
- Morgan FrostAssists2
- Travis SanheimPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:41Cam York Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (28)2–6
- P315:22Noah Cates Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (12)2–5
- P314:34Steven Stamkos Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (33), Nikita Kucherov (65)2–4
- P36:55Sean Walker Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (27), Nick Seeler (10)1–4
- P33:08Travis Sanheim Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (9), Garnet Hathaway (4)1–3
- P30:54Tyson Foerster Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Morgan Frost (20)1–2
- P24:35Nicholas Paul Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (37)1–1
- P12:22Bobby Brink Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (19), Marc Staal (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:22Bobby Brink Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (19), Marc Staal (3)TB 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 55% → 69% +14PHI 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P24:35Nicholas Paul Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (37)TB 1 – 1 PHI · TB 29% → 46% +18TB 29% → 46%+18 pts
- P30:54Tyson Foerster Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Morgan Frost (20)TB 1 – 2 PHI · PHI 53% → 76% +24PHI 53% → 76%+24 pts
- P33:08Travis Sanheim Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (9), Garnet Hathaway (4)TB 1 – 3 PHI · PHI 77% → 92% +15PHI 77% → 92%+15 pts
- P36:55Sean Walker Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (27), Nick Seeler (10)TB 1 – 4 PHI · PHI 95% → >99% +4PHI 95% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Fair odds
- PHI -120
- TB +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +1 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +21 Elo | PHI 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 31 |
| 15th of 31+0.1 | Margin | −0.117th of 31 |
| 18th of 3149.6% | Shot share | 54.6%4th of 31 |
| 29th of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 90.0%21st of 31 |
| 11th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 17th of 3114–16 | Road vs home | 13–1521st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–0 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.