Edmonton Oilers at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists1
- Leon DraisaitlPoints2
Kraken- Eeli TolvanenGoals1
- Vince DunnAssists1
- Eeli TolvanenPoints1
Scoring summary
- P313:23Eeli Tolvanen Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (22), Vince Dunn (33)2–1
- P38:02Brett Kulak Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (39), Leon Draisaitl (45)2–0
- P210:12Leon Draisaitl Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (73)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:12Leon Draisaitl Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (73)EDM 1 – 0 SEA · EDM 48% → 68% +20EDM 48% → 68%+20 pts
- P38:02Brett Kulak Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (39), Leon Draisaitl (45)EDM 2 – 0 SEA · EDM 78% → 94% +16EDM 78% → 94%+16 pts
- P313:23Eeli Tolvanen Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (22), Vince Dunn (33)EDM 2 – 1 SEA · SEA 2% → 14% +13SEA 2% → 14%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 47%
- Fair odds
- SEA -115
- EDM +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.0 – 3.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −9 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +19 Elo | EDM 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 31 |
| 11th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.3% | Shot share | 49.2%20th of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 91.3%5th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 6th of 3115–12 | Road vs home | 13–1522nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
EDM 3–0 SEA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.