St. Louis Blues at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals1
- Jordan KyrouAssists2
- Robert ThomasPoints2
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals2
- Connor McDavidAssists2
- Connor McDavidPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT4:34Connor McDavid Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (21), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (38)2–3
- P24:54Zach Hyman Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (72), Evan Bouchard (42)2–2
- P118:16Zach Hyman Goal (39) Backhand, assists: Connor McDavid (71), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (37)2–1
- P14:49Pavel Buchnevich Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (28), Robert Thomas (48)2–0
- P12:19Robert Thomas Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Torey Krug (28), Jordan Kyrou (27)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:19Robert Thomas Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Torey Krug (28), Jordan Kyrou (27)STL 1 – 0 EDM · STL 40% → 55% +15STL 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P14:49Pavel Buchnevich Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (28), Robert Thomas (48)STL 2 – 0 EDM · STL 55% → 70% +14STL 55% → 70%+14 pts
- P118:16Zach Hyman Goal (39) Backhand, assists: Connor McDavid (71), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (37)STL 2 – 1 EDM · EDM 25% → 41% +16EDM 25% → 41%+16 pts
- P24:54Zach Hyman Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (72), Evan Bouchard (42)STL 2 – 2 EDM · EDM 39% → 58% +19EDM 39% → 58%+19 pts
- OT4:34Connor McDavid Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (21), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (38)STL 2 – 3 EDM · EDM 51% → >99% +49EDM 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 64%
- Fair odds
- EDM -151
- STL +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.8 – 3.4 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | STL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −4 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +98 Elo | EDM 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 60.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.56th of 31 |
| 26th of 3147.0% | Shot share | 54.4%4th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 90.1%18th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3112–15 | Road vs home | 17–107th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 1–0 EDM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.