Seattle Kraken at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jared McCannGoals1
- Jared McCannAssists1
- Jared McCannPoints2
Flames- Andrei KuzmenkoGoals2
- Nazem KadriAssists2
- Andrei KuzmenkoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P312:29Jared McCann Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: none4–2
- P37:46Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (25), Nazem Kadri (32)3–2
- P30:21Adam Larsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (17), Jordan Eberle (22)3–1
- P212:34Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (23), Jaden Schwartz (12)2–1
- P27:50Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (12) Wrap-around, assists: Nazem Kadri (31), Jonathan Huberdeau (29)1–1
- P14:04Yanni Gourde Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Tanev (5), Vince Dunn (34)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:04Yanni Gourde Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Tanev (5), Vince Dunn (34)SEA 1 – 0 CGY · SEA 44% → 59% +15SEA 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P27:50Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (12) Wrap-around, assists: Nazem Kadri (31), Jonathan Huberdeau (29)SEA 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 35% → 54% +19CGY 35% → 54%+19 pts
- P212:34Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (23), Jaden Schwartz (12)SEA 2 – 1 CGY · SEA 46% → 67% +21SEA 46% → 67%+21 pts
- P30:21Adam Larsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (17), Jordan Eberle (22)SEA 3 – 1 CGY · SEA 71% → 88% +17SEA 71% → 88%+17 pts
- P37:46Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (25), Nazem Kadri (32)SEA 3 – 2 CGY · CGY 6% → 23% +17CGY 6% → 23%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 59%
- Fair odds
- CGY -127
- SEA +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.9 – 3.3 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +7 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +65 Elo | CGY 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 31 |
| 8th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.2% | Shot share | 51.1%12th of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 90.2%17th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 24th of 3112–17 | Road vs home | 15–1417th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–2 CGY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.