Pittsburgh Penguins at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Jeff CarterGoals1
- Ryan GravesAssists1
- Jeff CarterPoints1
Flames- Yegor SharangovichGoals2
- Mikael BacklundAssists2
- Yegor SharangovichPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:10Yegor Sharangovich Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (19)3–4
- P310:41Blake Coleman Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (22), Mikael Backlund (18)3–3
- P310:09Nazem Kadri Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (19), Noah Hanifin (24)3–2
- P32:51Jeff Carter Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Graves (8), Noel Acciari (2)3–1
- P23:37Yegor Sharangovich Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P119:26Lars Eller Goal (12) Batted, assists: Valtteri Puustinen (11), Sidney Crosby (31)2–0
- P116:42Jonathan Gruden Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:42Jonathan Gruden Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: nonePIT 1 – 0 CGY · PIT 46% → 63% +17PIT 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P32:51Jeff Carter Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Graves (8), Noel Acciari (2)PIT 3 – 1 CGY · PIT 73% → 90% +17PIT 73% → 90%+17 pts
- P310:09Nazem Kadri Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (19), Noah Hanifin (24)PIT 3 – 2 CGY · CGY 4% → 20% +16CGY 4% → 20%+16 pts
- P310:41Blake Coleman Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (22), Mikael Backlund (18)PIT 3 – 3 CGY · CGY 19% → 52% +33CGY 19% → 52%+33 pts
- P319:10Yegor Sharangovich Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (19)PIT 3 – 4 CGY · CGY 51% → >99% +49CGY 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 56%
- Fair odds
- CGY -123
- PIT +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.2 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +8 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +39 Elo | CGY 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.120th of 31 |
| 7th of 3152.2% | Shot share | 51.3%12th of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 90.2%16th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3112–15 | Road vs home | 14–1417th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–0 CGY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.