Winnipeg Jets at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Nino NiederreiterAssists1
- Mark ScheifelePoints1
KrakenScoring summary
- P319:10Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (24), Alex Iafallo (13)3–0
- P311:28Adam Lowry Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (15), Mason Appleton (18)2–0
- P37:15Mark Scheifele Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (22), Josh Morrissey (44)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P37:15Mark Scheifele Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (22), Josh Morrissey (44)WPG 1 – 0 SEA · WPG 48% → 77% +29WPG 48% → 77%+29 pts
- P311:28Adam Lowry Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (15), Mason Appleton (18)WPG 2 – 0 SEA · WPG 82% → 97% +15WPG 82% → 97%+15 pts
- P319:10Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (24), Alex Iafallo (13)WPG 3 – 0 SEA · WPG >99% → 100% +0WPG >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 50%
- Fair odds
- SEA -118
- WPG +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 3.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +7 | WPG: Laurent Brossoit: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +3 Elo | SEA 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.4 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.6 | Margin | 0.017th of 31 |
| 14th of 3151.0% | Shot share | 49.0%21st of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.4% | Save percentage | 91.3%5th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 5th of 3116–12 | Road vs home | 13–1624th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WPG 0–1 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.