Vancouver Canucks at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Conor GarlandGoals1
- Elias LindholmAssists1
- Phillip Di GiuseppePoints1
Golden Knights- Michael AmadioGoals1
- Nicolas RoyAssists1
- Michael AmadioPoints1
Scoring summary
- P215:58Conor Garland Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Elias Lindholm (26)3–1
- P23:50Michael Amadio Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (26), Nicolas Roy (24)2–1
- P16:56Phillip Di Giuseppe Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (10), Noah Juulsen (6)2–0
- P16:01Quinn Hughes Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (47), Brock Boeser (29)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:01Quinn Hughes Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (47), Brock Boeser (29)VAN 1 – 0 VGK · VAN 46% → 62% +15VAN 46% → 62%+15 pts
- P16:56Phillip Di Giuseppe Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (10), Noah Juulsen (6)VAN 2 – 0 VGK · VAN 62% → 75% +14VAN 62% → 75%+14 pts
- P23:50Michael Amadio Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (26), Nicolas Roy (24)VAN 2 – 1 VGK · VGK 19% → 35% +15VGK 19% → 35%+15 pts
- P215:58Conor Garland Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Elias Lindholm (26)VAN 3 – 1 VGK · VAN 70% → 86% +17VAN 70% → 86%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 49%
- Fair odds
- VGK -117
- VAN +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.2 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −7 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +7 Elo | VAN 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+0.8 | Margin | +0.312th of 31 |
| 21st of 3149.0% | Shot share | 49.7%18th of 31 |
| 9th of 3190.9% | Save percentage | 90.9%10th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 31 |
| 4th of 3120–15 | Road vs home | 19–104th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VAN 0–1 VGK in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.