Vegas Golden Knights at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Chandler StephensonGoals1
- Chandler StephensonAssists1
- Chandler StephensonPoints2
Blue Jackets- Alexander NylanderGoals3
- Alexandre TexierAssists2
- Alexander NylanderPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:49Alexander Nylander Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexandre Texier (12)3–6
- P311:20Yegor Chinakhov Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (15), Jake Bean (7)3–5
- P310:16Chandler Stephenson Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (24), Michael Amadio (13)3–4
- P33:23Alexander Nylander Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (13)2–4
- P217:21Erik Gudbranson Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (35), Boone Jenner (10)2–3
- P118:01William Karlsson Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (24), Nicolas Hague (10)2–2
- P117:19Mason Morelli Goal (3) Wrap-around, assists: Byron Froese (1)1–2
- P113:11Alexander Nylander Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Alexandre Texier (11), Ivan Provorov (22)0–2
- P16:16Justin Danforth Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (7), Zach Werenski (33)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:16Justin Danforth Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (7), Zach Werenski (33)VGK 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 53% → 68% +15CBJ 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P118:01William Karlsson Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (24), Nicolas Hague (10)VGK 2 – 2 CBJ · VGK 31% → 47% +17VGK 31% → 47%+17 pts
- P217:21Erik Gudbranson Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (35), Boone Jenner (10)VGK 2 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 52% → 74% +22CBJ 52% → 74%+22 pts
- P33:23Alexander Nylander Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (13)VGK 2 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 77% → 92% +15CBJ 77% → 92%+15 pts
- P310:16Chandler Stephenson Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (24), Michael Amadio (13)VGK 3 – 4 CBJ · VGK 3% → 17% +14VGK 3% → 17%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 47%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -114
- VGK +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −8 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +24 Elo | VGK 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 53.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 31 |
| 11th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.730th of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.727th of 31 |
| 18th of 3149.6% | Shot share | 47.3%24th of 31 |
| 9th of 3191.0% | Save percentage | 89.8%25th of 31 |
| 27th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 19th of 3113–16 | Road vs home | 10–1928th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.