Columbus Blue Jackets at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Johnny GaudreauGoals1
- Zach WerenskiAssists2
- Zach WerenskiPoints2
Blackhawks- Ryan DonatoGoals1
- Ryan DonatoAssists1
- Ryan DonatoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:35Johnny Gaudreau Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (16)5–2
- P36:18Ryan Donato Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (24), Alex Vlasic (10)4–2
- P211:51Cole Sillinger Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Nylander (2), Adam Boqvist (8)4–1
- P23:09Mathieu Olivier Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Zach Werenski (32)3–1
- P117:32Philipp Kurashev Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (24), Ryan Donato (11)2–1
- P114:05Boone Jenner Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Zach Werenski (31), Jack Roslovic (15)2–0
- P10:33Alexandre Texier Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:33Alexandre Texier Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCBJ 1 – 0 CHI · CBJ 47% → 61% +14CBJ 47% → 61%+14 pts
- P114:05Boone Jenner Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Zach Werenski (31), Jack Roslovic (15)CBJ 2 – 0 CHI · CBJ 64% → 78% +14CBJ 64% → 78%+14 pts
- P117:32Philipp Kurashev Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (24), Ryan Donato (11)CBJ 2 – 1 CHI · CHI 21% → 36% +15CHI 21% → 36%+15 pts
- P23:09Mathieu Olivier Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Zach Werenski (32)CBJ 3 – 1 CHI · CBJ 66% → 81% +15CBJ 66% → 81%+15 pts
- P211:51Cole Sillinger Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Nylander (2), Adam Boqvist (8)CBJ 4 – 1 CHI · CBJ 84% → 94% +9CBJ 84% → 94%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 45%
- Fair odds
- CHI -113
- CBJ +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.0 – 3.2 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −20 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.50 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +33 Elo | CBJ 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.131st of 31 |
| 30th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.8 | Margin | −1.430th of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.3% | Shot share | 44.7%30th of 31 |
| 25th of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 89.9%21st of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 31 |
| 29th of 319–20 | Road vs home | 11–2028th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CBJ 1–0 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.