Detroit Red Wings at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Patrick KaneGoals1
- Patrick KaneAssists1
- Patrick KanePoints2
Blackhawks- MacKenzie EntwistleGoals1
- Ryan DonatoAssists1
- Nick FolignoPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:43Patrick Kane Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (30)3–2
- P315:44Alex DeBrincat Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (16), Shayne Gostisbehere (29)2–2
- P217:52Nick Foligno Goal (14) Deflected, assists: Connor Bedard (23), Seth Jones (17)1–2
- P23:29MacKenzie Entwistle Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (10), Reese Johnson (2)1–1
- P119:19Daniel Sprong Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Fischer (12), Robby Fabbri (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:19Daniel Sprong Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Fischer (12), Robby Fabbri (10)DET 1 – 0 CHI · DET 48% → 65% +17DET 48% → 65%+17 pts
- P23:29MacKenzie Entwistle Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (10), Reese Johnson (2)DET 1 – 1 CHI · CHI 34% → 52% +18CHI 34% → 52%+18 pts
- P217:52Nick Foligno Goal (14) Deflected, assists: Connor Bedard (23), Seth Jones (17)DET 1 – 2 CHI · CHI 52% → 74% +22CHI 52% → 74%+22 pts
- P315:44Alex DeBrincat Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (16), Shayne Gostisbehere (29)DET 2 – 2 CHI · DET 8% → 49% +41DET 8% → 49%+41 pts
- OT1:43Patrick Kane Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (30)DET 3 – 2 CHI · DET 49% → 94% +44DET 49% → 94%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 43%
- Fair odds
- CHI -111
- DET +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 3.1 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −16 | +6 | DET: James Reimer: team allows 0.41 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +51 Elo | DET 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 2.131st of 31 |
| 19th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.524th of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −1.430th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3147.5% | Shot share | 44.6%30th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 90.0%18th of 31 |
| 4th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 31 |
| 12th of 3114–12 | Road vs home | 11–1827th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–0 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.