Colorado Avalanche at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Zach PariseGoals2
- Cale MakarAssists2
- Zach ParisePoints3
BlackhawksScoring summary
- P317:32Nathan MacKinnon Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (51)5–0
- P219:58Devon Toews Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (46), Cale Makar (50)4–0
- P27:38Zach Parise Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Ryan Johansen (10), Jonathan Drouin (24)3–0
- P26:56Ross Colton Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Parise (3), Nathan MacKinnon (64)2–0
- P117:58Zach Parise Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Johnson (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:58Zach Parise Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Johnson (11)COL 1 – 0 CHI · COL 48% → 65% +17COL 48% → 65%+17 pts
- P26:56Ross Colton Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Parise (3), Nathan MacKinnon (64)COL 2 – 0 CHI · COL 67% → 83% +15COL 67% → 83%+15 pts
- P27:38Zach Parise Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Ryan Johansen (10), Jonathan Drouin (24)COL 3 – 0 CHI · COL 83% → 93% +10COL 83% → 93%+10 pts
- P219:58Devon Toews Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (46), Cale Makar (50)COL 4 – 0 CHI · COL 97% → >99% +2COL 97% → >99%+2 pts
- P317:32Nathan MacKinnon Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (51)COL 5 – 0 CHI · COL >99% → 100% +0COL >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 41%
- Fair odds
- CHI -109
- COL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 3.1 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1412 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −18 | +6 | COL: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.45 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +66 Elo | COL 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 52.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 2.131st of 31 |
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.424th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.5 | Margin | −1.330th of 31 |
| 9th of 3152.1% | Shot share | 44.7%30th of 31 |
| 20th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 90.0%19th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 31 |
| 21st of 3113–16 | Road vs home | 11–1927th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–1 CHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.