New Jersey Devils at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Simon NemecGoals1
- Nico HischierAssists1
- Simon NemecPoints1
Rangers- Mika ZibanejadGoals1
- Jimmy VeseyAssists2
- Jimmy VeseyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:47Vincent Trocheck Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Jimmy Vesey (9)1–3
- P317:26Simon Nemec Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (41), Nico Hischier (29)1–2
- P219:08Erik Gustafsson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Zac Jones (5), Jimmy Vesey (8)0–2
- P212:25Mika Zibanejad Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Chris Kreider (27)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:25Mika Zibanejad Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Chris Kreider (27)NJ 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 55% → 75% +20NYR 55% → 75%+20 pts
- P219:08Erik Gustafsson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Zac Jones (5), Jimmy Vesey (8)NJ 0 – 2 NYR · NYR 77% → 91% +14NYR 77% → 91%+14 pts
- P317:26Simon Nemec Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (41), Nico Hischier (29)NJ 1 – 2 NYR · NJ <1% → 4% +4NJ <1% → 4%+4 pts
- P318:47Vincent Trocheck Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Jimmy Vesey (9)NJ 1 – 3 NYR · NYR >99% → >99% +0NYR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 68%
- Fair odds
- NYR -137
- NJ +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.9 – 3.3 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −31 | +8 | NJ: Kaapo Kahkonen: team allows 0.77 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +133 Elo | NYR 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 57.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 31 |
| 25th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.86th of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.67th of 31 |
| 10th of 3152.0% | Shot share | 50.2%16th of 31 |
| 30th of 3189.1% | Save percentage | 91.4%5th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 12th of 3116–14 | Road vs home | 21–82nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NJ 0–2 NYR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.