New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Vincent TrocheckGoals2
- Alexis LafreniereAssists2
- Alexis LafrenierePoints3
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals1
- Calle JarnkrokAssists1
- John TavaresPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Max Domi Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Mitchell Marner Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Mika Zibanejad Goal Snap Shot1–2
- P318:53Vincent Trocheck Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (21), Artemi Panarin (49)3–3
- P37:17John Tavares Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Calle Jarnkrok (10), Morgan Rielly (37)2–3
- P28:54William Nylander Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (24), Jake McCabe (16)2–2
- P25:03Vincent Trocheck Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (20), Artemi Panarin (48)2–1
- P23:54Mitchell Marner Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (26)1–1
- P111:33Alexis Lafrenière Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (39)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:54Mitchell Marner Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (26)NYR 1 – 1 TOR · TOR 35% → 53% +18TOR 35% → 53%+18 pts
- P25:03Vincent Trocheck Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (20), Artemi Panarin (48)NYR 2 – 1 TOR · NYR 47% → 66% +19NYR 47% → 66%+19 pts
- P28:54William Nylander Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (24), Jake McCabe (16)NYR 2 – 2 TOR · TOR 33% → 53% +20TOR 33% → 53%+20 pts
- P37:17John Tavares Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Calle Jarnkrok (10), Morgan Rielly (37)NYR 2 – 3 TOR · TOR 52% → 80% +28TOR 52% → 80%+28 pts
- P318:53Vincent Trocheck Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (21), Artemi Panarin (49)NYR 3 – 3 TOR · NYR <1% → 49% +49NYR <1% → 49%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 50%
- Fair odds
- TOR -118
- NYR +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −7 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +1 Elo | TOR 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 31 |
| 6th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.59th of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.1% | Shot share | 52.6%6th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 89.9%21st of 31 |
| 1st of 319–1 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3118–13 | Road vs home | 15–1314th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYR 1–1 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.