Florida Panthers at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Nick CousinsGoals2
- Matthew TkachukAssists3
- Matthew TkachukPoints3
Devils- Jack HughesGoals1
- Jesper BrattAssists2
- Jack HughesPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:52Sam Reinhart Goal (45) Snap Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (12)5–3
- P311:16Colin Miller Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (42), Jack Hughes (38)4–3
- P35:33Nick Cousins Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Gustav Forsling (22), Matthew Tkachuk (50)4–2
- P212:37Eetu Luostarinen Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Kulikov (16), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (18)3–2
- P211:01Timo Meier Goal (14) Backhand, assists: none2–2
- P111:45Jack Hughes Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (41), Luke Hughes (24)2–1
- P16:30Evan Rodrigues Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (49), Sam Bennett (16)2–0
- P12:54Nick Cousins Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (48)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:54Nick Cousins Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (48)FLA 1 – 0 NJ · FLA 44% → 59% +15FLA 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P211:01Timo Meier Goal (14) Backhand, assists: noneFLA 2 – 2 NJ · NJ 34% → 54% +20NJ 34% → 54%+20 pts
- P212:37Eetu Luostarinen Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Kulikov (16), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (18)FLA 3 – 2 NJ · FLA 46% → 67% +21FLA 46% → 67%+21 pts
- P35:33Nick Cousins Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Gustav Forsling (22), Matthew Tkachuk (50)FLA 4 – 2 NJ · FLA 75% → 92% +17FLA 75% → 92%+17 pts
- P311:16Colin Miller Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (42), Jack Hughes (38)FLA 4 – 3 NJ · NJ 3% → 18% +15NJ 3% → 18%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 44%
- Fair odds
- NJ -129
- FLA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.9 – 3.3 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | FLA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −23 | FLA: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · NJ: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.57 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +41 Elo | FLA 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.4 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+0.9 | Margin | −0.223rd of 31 |
| 2nd of 3155.2% | Shot share | 52.1%7th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3191.9% | Save percentage | 89.0%30th of 31 |
| 1st of 319–1 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 1st of 3121–10 | Road vs home | 13–1622nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
FLA 1–1 NJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.