Florida Panthers at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Brandon MontourGoals1
- Brandon MontourAssists2
- Brandon MontourPoints3
Red WingsScoring summary
- P313:02Aleksander Barkov Goal (15) Deflected, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (33), Brandon Montour (19)4–0
- P34:39Evan Rodrigues Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (7), Anton Lundell (18)3–0
- P213:06Sam Reinhart Goal (42) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (45), Brandon Montour (18)2–0
- P28:50Brandon Montour Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (26), Anton Lundell (17)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:50Brandon Montour Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (26), Anton Lundell (17)FLA 1 – 0 DET · FLA 47% → 67% +20FLA 47% → 67%+20 pts
- P213:06Sam Reinhart Goal (42) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (45), Brandon Montour (18)FLA 2 – 0 DET · FLA 68% → 85% +16FLA 68% → 85%+16 pts
- P34:39Evan Rodrigues Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (7), Anton Lundell (18)FLA 3 – 0 DET · FLA 92% → 98% +6FLA 92% → 98%+6 pts
- P313:02Aleksander Barkov Goal (15) Deflected, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (33), Brandon Montour (19)FLA 4 – 0 DET · FLA >99% → >99% +0FLA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 51%
- Fair odds
- DET -118
- FLA +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +6 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +5 Elo | DET 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.4 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+0.8 | Margin | +0.411th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3155.1% | Shot share | 47.6%23rd of 31 |
| 2nd of 3191.8% | Save percentage | 90.5%13th of 31 |
| 1st of 319–1 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 1st of 3119–10 | Road vs home | 18–1313th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
FLA 1–1 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.