New York Islanders at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Brock NelsonGoals2
- Casey CizikasAssists1
- Brock NelsonPoints2
Red Wings- Olli MaattaGoals2
- David PerronAssists1
- Olli MaattaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:24Pierre Engvall Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (8), Casey Cizikas (8)5–3
- P313:58Mathew Barzal Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–3
- P310:49Olli Maatta Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (30), Daniel Sprong (23)3–3
- P35:04Brock Nelson Goal (27) Slap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (45), Kyle Palmieri (18)3–2
- P30:10Patrick Kane Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (28), Jeff Petry (16)2–2
- P25:04Olli Maatta Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: David Perron (19), Joe Veleno (15)2–1
- P116:18Casey Cizikas Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Adam Pelech (8), Noah Dobson (54)2–0
- P112:11Brock Nelson Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:11Brock Nelson Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: noneNYI 1 – 0 DET · NYI 44% → 60% +16NYI 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P30:10Patrick Kane Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (28), Jeff Petry (16)NYI 2 – 2 DET · DET 30% → 54% +24DET 30% → 54%+24 pts
- P35:04Brock Nelson Goal (27) Slap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (45), Kyle Palmieri (18)NYI 3 – 2 DET · NYI 46% → 74% +28NYI 46% → 74%+28 pts
- P310:49Olli Maatta Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (30), Daniel Sprong (23)NYI 3 – 3 DET · DET 19% → 53% +33DET 19% → 53%+33 pts
- P313:58Mathew Barzal Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYI 4 – 3 DET · NYI 48% → 86% +39NYI 48% → 86%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 66%
- Fair odds
- DET -134
- NYI +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.9 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +10 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +113 Elo | DET 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 57.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.6 | Margin | +0.510th of 31 |
| 27th of 3146.7% | Shot share | 47.6%23rd of 31 |
| 11th of 3190.7% | Save percentage | 90.6%12th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 27th of 3110–17 | Road vs home | 18–1210th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYI 0–1 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.