Washington Capitals at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Michael SgarbossaGoals1
- Alex OvechkinAssists1
- Max PaciorettyPoints1
Red Wings- Shayne GostisbehereGoals2
- Lucas RaymondAssists2
- Lucas RaymondPoints3
Scoring summary
- P314:11Dylan Larkin Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (34), Olli Maatta (11)3–8
- P311:49Alex DeBrincat Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Larkin (27), Patrick Kane (18)3–7
- P37:09Max Pacioretty Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–6
- P34:31Robby Fabbri Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Patrick Kane (17), Daniel Sprong (22)2–6
- P219:47J.T. Compher Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (16), Moritz Seider (25)2–5
- P216:38Michael Sgarbossa Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: John Carlson (30)2–4
- P29:01Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (33)1–4
- P24:44Joe Veleno Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: David Perron (18)1–3
- P22:09Hendrix Lapierre Goal (5) Poke, assists: Alex Ovechkin (27), Anthony Mantha (14)1–2
- P116:20Lucas Raymond Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (21), Michael Rasmussen (14)0–2
- P15:45Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Joe Veleno (14), David Perron (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:45Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Joe Veleno (14), David Perron (17)WSH 0 – 1 DET · DET 60% → 74% +14DET 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P116:20Lucas Raymond Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (21), Michael Rasmussen (14)WSH 0 – 2 DET · DET 74% → 86% +12DET 74% → 86%+12 pts
- P22:09Hendrix Lapierre Goal (5) Poke, assists: Alex Ovechkin (27), Anthony Mantha (14)WSH 1 – 2 DET · WSH 13% → 25% +12WSH 13% → 25%+12 pts
- P24:44Joe Veleno Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: David Perron (18)WSH 1 – 3 DET · DET 75% → 88% +12DET 75% → 88%+12 pts
- P29:01Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (33)WSH 1 – 4 DET · DET 89% → 96% +7DET 89% → 96%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 66%
- Fair odds
- DET -154
- WSH +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.8 – 3.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +12 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.30 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +116 Elo | DET 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 60.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.4 | Margin | +0.412th of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.3% | Shot share | 47.4%23rd of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 90.7%12th of 31 |
| 11th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3112–15 | Road vs home | 17–1211th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.