Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Brady TkachukGoals1
- Brady TkachukAssists2
- Brady TkachukPoints3
Capitals- Hendrix LapierreGoals2
- Aliaksei ProtasAssists2
- Aliaksei ProtasPoints3
Scoring summary
- P210:55Hendrix Lapierre Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (13), Aliaksei Protas (21)3–6
- P21:58Hendrix Lapierre Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Beck Malenstyn (10), Ethan Bear (3)3–5
- P21:27Brady Tkachuk Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (23), Shane Pinto (8)3–4
- P118:47Beck Malenstyn Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (20), Nicolas Aube-Kubel (10)2–4
- P118:33Max Pacioretty Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Sgarbossa (2), Connor McMichael (12)2–3
- P112:41Shane Pinto Goal (5) Batted, assists: Travis Hamonic (4), Brady Tkachuk (24)2–2
- P110:12Drake Batherson Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (23), Shane Pinto (7)1–2
- P18:30John Carlson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (22)0–2
- P16:30Aliaksei Protas Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Anthony Mantha (12), Connor McMichael (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:30Aliaksei Protas Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Anthony Mantha (12), Connor McMichael (11)OTT 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 54% → 69% +15WSH 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P112:41Shane Pinto Goal (5) Batted, assists: Travis Hamonic (4), Brady Tkachuk (24)OTT 2 – 2 WSH · OTT 31% → 46% +16OTT 31% → 46%+16 pts
- P118:33Max Pacioretty Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Sgarbossa (2), Connor McMichael (12)OTT 2 – 3 WSH · WSH 53% → 70% +17WSH 53% → 70%+17 pts
- P21:27Brady Tkachuk Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (23), Shane Pinto (8)OTT 3 – 4 WSH · OTT 16% → 29% +13OTT 16% → 29%+13 pts
- P21:58Hendrix Lapierre Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Beck Malenstyn (10), Ethan Bear (3)OTT 3 – 5 WSH · WSH 71% → 84% +14WSH 71% → 84%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 51%
- Fair odds
- WSH -118
- OTT +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.0 – 3.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | −7 | OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.31 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · WSH: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +6 Elo | WSH 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.1 | Margin | −0.525th of 31 |
| 7th of 3152.5% | Shot share | 47.3%25th of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.6% | Save percentage | 90.5%13th of 31 |
| 4th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 31 |
| 27th of 318–14 | Road vs home | 14–1416th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OTT 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.