Montreal Canadiens at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists2
- Nick SuzukiPoints3
Panthers- Sam ReinhartGoals2
- Aleksander BarkovAssists2
- Sam ReinhartPoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Anton Lundell Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Cole Caufield Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Aleksander Barkov Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- P313:05Sam Reinhart Goal (41) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (44)3–3
- P33:27Alex Newhook Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (28), Nick Suzuki (35)3–2
- P219:59Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (34)2–2
- P214:08Sam Reinhart Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (47), Aleksander Barkov (43)1–2
- P18:24Nick Suzuki Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Arber Xhekaj (4), David Savard (10)1–1
- P17:01Aleksander Barkov Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (30), Carter Verhaeghe (32)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:24Nick Suzuki Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Arber Xhekaj (4), David Savard (10)MTL 1 – 1 FLA · MTL 28% → 42% +14MTL 28% → 42%+14 pts
- P214:08Sam Reinhart Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (47), Aleksander Barkov (43)MTL 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 55% → 76% +20FLA 55% → 76%+20 pts
- P219:59Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (34)MTL 2 – 2 FLA · MTL 23% → 45% +23MTL 23% → 45%+23 pts
- P33:27Alex Newhook Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (28), Nick Suzuki (35)MTL 3 – 2 FLA · MTL 46% → 72% +26MTL 46% → 72%+26 pts
- P313:05Sam Reinhart Goal (41) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (44)MTL 3 – 3 FLA · FLA 16% → 53% +37FLA 16% → 53%+37 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 70%
- Fair odds
- FLA -139
- MTL +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.9 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +10 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · FLA: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +146 Elo | FLA 69.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 58.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 2.42nd of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.8 | Margin | +0.82nd of 31 |
| 28th of 3146.1% | Shot share | 55.1%2nd of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 91.8%2nd of 31 |
| 30th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 31 |
| 26th of 3111–16 | Road vs home | 18–106th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MTL 0–2 FLA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.