New Jersey Devils at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Timo MeierGoals1
- Nico HischierAssists1
- Timo MeierPoints1
Kings- Phillip DanaultGoals3
- Kevin FialaAssists2
- Phillip DanaultPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:47Phillip Danault Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (19), Kevin Fiala (36)1–5
- P212:57Kevin Fiala Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (33), Drew Doughty (24)1–4
- P212:23Phillip Danault Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Roy (15), Trevor Moore (18)1–3
- P114:49Alex Laferriere Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (14)1–2
- P17:56Phillip Danault Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (35), Vladislav Gavrikov (12)1–1
- P10:15Timo Meier Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Nico Hischier (25)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:15Timo Meier Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Nico Hischier (25)NJ 1 – 0 LA · NJ 45% → 59% +14NJ 45% → 59%+14 pts
- P17:56Phillip Danault Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (35), Vladislav Gavrikov (12)NJ 1 – 1 LA · LA 39% → 55% +15LA 39% → 55%+15 pts
- P114:49Alex Laferriere Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (14)NJ 1 – 2 LA · LA 55% → 70% +16LA 55% → 70%+16 pts
- P212:23Phillip Danault Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Roy (15), Trevor Moore (18)NJ 1 – 3 LA · LA 74% → 88% +14LA 74% → 88%+14 pts
- P212:57Kevin Fiala Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (33), Drew Doughty (24)NJ 1 – 4 LA · LA 88% → 96% +8LA 88% → 96%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 57%
- Fair odds
- LA -124
- NJ +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.9 – 3.2 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −2 | NJ: Nico Daws: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +46 Elo | LA 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 31 |
| 25th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.73rd of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.313th of 31 |
| 9th of 3152.0% | Shot share | 54.2%5th of 31 |
| 30th of 3189.1% | Save percentage | 91.0%9th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 10th of 3116–13 | Road vs home | 10–1626th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NJ 0–1 LA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.