St. Louis Blues at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Brandon SaadGoals1
- Marco ScandellaAssists1
- Brandon SaadPoints1
Devils- Timo MeierGoals3
- Nico HischierAssists2
- Timo MeierPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:01Erik Haula Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Timo Meier (16), John Marino (18)1–4
- P216:40Timo Meier Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (17), Nico Hischier (27)1–3
- P29:03Brandon Saad Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Scott Perunovich (14), Marco Scandella (6)1–2
- P116:04Timo Meier Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (16), John Marino (17)0–2
- P113:24Timo Meier Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Nico Hischier (26), Jack Hughes (39)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:24Timo Meier Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Nico Hischier (26), Jack Hughes (39)STL 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 54% → 70% +16NJ 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P116:04Timo Meier Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (16), John Marino (17)STL 0 – 2 NJ · NJ 70% → 83% +13NJ 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P29:03Brandon Saad Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Scott Perunovich (14), Marco Scandella (6)STL 1 – 2 NJ · STL 14% → 28% +14STL 14% → 28%+14 pts
- P216:40Timo Meier Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (17), Nico Hischier (27)STL 1 – 3 NJ · NJ 74% → 89% +15NJ 74% → 89%+15 pts
- P319:01Erik Haula Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Timo Meier (16), John Marino (18)STL 1 – 4 NJ · NJ >99% → 100% +0NJ >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 52%
- Fair odds
- NJ -120
- STL +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 3.2 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −1 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · NJ: Nico Daws: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +17 Elo | NJ 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 31 |
| 14th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.1 | Margin | −0.223rd of 31 |
| 27th of 3146.8% | Shot share | 52.0%9th of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 89.0%30th of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3113–17 | Road vs home | 13–1724th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 1–0 NJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.