St. Louis Blues at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Alexey ToropchenkoGoals1
- Marco ScandellaAssists1
- Jordan KyrouPoints1
Islanders- Kyle PalmieriGoals1
- Brock NelsonAssists2
- Brock NelsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:29Mathew Barzal Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (23), Alexander Romanov (9)2–4
- P30:55Bo Horvat Goal (24) Wrap-around, assists: Brock Nelson (22), Adam Pelech (10)2–3
- P217:47Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (6), Anders Lee (10)2–2
- P212:32Kyle Palmieri Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Pelech (9), Noah Dobson (56)2–1
- P28:30Jordan Kyrou Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Saad (11), Marco Scandella (5)2–0
- P21:21Alexey Toropchenko Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:21Alexey Toropchenko Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (8)STL 1 – 0 NYI · STL 43% → 61% +18STL 43% → 61%+18 pts
- P28:30Jordan Kyrou Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Saad (11), Marco Scandella (5)STL 2 – 0 NYI · STL 63% → 80% +17STL 63% → 80%+17 pts
- P212:32Kyle Palmieri Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Pelech (9), Noah Dobson (56)STL 2 – 1 NYI · NYI 18% → 35% +17NYI 18% → 35%+17 pts
- P217:47Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (6), Anders Lee (10)STL 2 – 2 NYI · NYI 32% → 55% +23NYI 32% → 55%+23 pts
- P30:55Bo Horvat Goal (24) Wrap-around, assists: Brock Nelson (22), Adam Pelech (10)STL 2 – 3 NYI · NYI 55% → 78% +23NYI 55% → 78%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 57%
- Fair odds
- NYI -142
- STL +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.9 – 3.4 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | STL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +2 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +46 Elo | NYI 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 58.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.424th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.1 | Margin | −0.426th of 31 |
| 26th of 3146.9% | Shot share | 46.9%27th of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 90.8%12th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 19th of 3113–16 | Road vs home | 13–1622nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 1–0 NYI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.