St. Louis Blues at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Kevin HayesGoals1
- Kasperi KapanenAssists1
- Kevin HayesPoints1
Flyers- Scott LaughtonGoals1
- Ryan PoehlingAssists1
- Scott LaughtonPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Pavel Buchnevich Goal Backhand2–1
- SO0:00Morgan Frost Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Jake Neighbours Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- P215:47Kevin Hayes Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (12)1–1
- P118:52Scott Laughton Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Ryan Poehling (13), Travis Sanheim (29)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:52Scott Laughton Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Ryan Poehling (13), Travis Sanheim (29)STL 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 54% → 71% +17PHI 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P215:47Kevin Hayes Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (12)STL 1 – 1 PHI · STL 26% → 47% +21STL 26% → 47%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Fair odds
- PHI -122
- STL +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 3.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | 0 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +35 Elo | PHI 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.1 | Margin | 0.016th of 31 |
| 26th of 3147.1% | Shot share | 54.7%3rd of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 89.8%24th of 31 |
| 18th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3112–16 | Road vs home | 15–1519th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 0–1 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.