Ottawa Senators at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Thomas ChabotGoals1
- Dominik KubalikAssists1
- Thomas ChabotPoints1
Flyers- Tyson FoersterGoals2
- Scott LaughtonAssists1
- Tyson FoersterPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:59Cam York Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–4
- P318:02Thomas Chabot Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Dominik Kubalik (4), Claude Giroux (35)2–3
- P219:58Tyson Foerster Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: none1–3
- P219:13Tyson Foerster Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (22)1–2
- P24:04Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Shane Pinto (10), Mathieu Joseph (20)1–1
- P11:08Joel Farabee Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Nick Seeler (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:08Joel Farabee Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Nick Seeler (11)OTT 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 51% → 65% +14PHI 51% → 65%+14 pts
- P24:04Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Shane Pinto (10), Mathieu Joseph (20)OTT 1 – 1 PHI · OTT 31% → 49% +18OTT 31% → 49%+18 pts
- P219:13Tyson Foerster Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (22)OTT 1 – 2 PHI · PHI 51% → 74% +23PHI 51% → 74%+23 pts
- P219:58Tyson Foerster Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: noneOTT 1 – 3 PHI · PHI 74% → 90% +16PHI 74% → 90%+16 pts
- P318:02Thomas Chabot Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Dominik Kubalik (4), Claude Giroux (35)OTT 2 – 3 PHI · OTT <1% → 2% +2OTT <1% → 2%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- OTT +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.1 – 3.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −8 | OTT: Mads Sogaard: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · PHI: Felix Sandstrom (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +15 Elo | PHI 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.2 | Margin | 0.017th of 31 |
| 7th of 3152.3% | Shot share | 54.6%3rd of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.4% | Save percentage | 89.8%23rd of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 28th of 318–16 | Road vs home | 14–1521st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OTT 2–0 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.